Vacation in Somalia
There are two problems with this:
(1) If I say, “A monopoly institution based on violence makes things worse,” that doesn’t mean, “The absence of such an institution implies paradise.” You might as well say, “Whoa ho ho, you claim to hate dictatorships? Well there weren’t any dictators around during the Mesozoic era, I guess you want to hang with the brontosauruses?”
(2) The video is neglecting the difference in travel costs from Nashville to Somalia versus Nashville to Florida. Apples to oranges. Just silly, really.
The Peace That Passeth All Understanding
On the plane from Dallas to Nashville, I witnessed the coolest lightning storm I have ever seen. I am not exaggerating, you could see it out the plane’s window for a good 20 minutes, so that means what? It had to be at least 100 miles long?
The clouds within which the flashes kept occurring were off in the distance. I have no idea how far away we were, but it seemed a bit too close for comfort. I vaguely recalled something from AP physics class, where you couldn’t get electrocuted if you were inside a metal object, because the charge would distribute itself on the exterior (since the electrons repel each other). But I wasn’t really worried about getting zapped personally, I was instead worried about the lightning knocking out an engine. (And notwithstanding my physics class, I saw that happen in a Twilight Zone episode so it must be possible.)
Anyway, I managed to calm down and just enjoy the light show, by reminding myself that I claimed to believe in an omnipotent loving Being who created everything and designed every subatomic event in the universe’s history in order to fulfill His grand plan. I still would have been terrified had lightning struck the plane (again, assuming that is physically possible), but I managed at least to stop worrying about the mere possibility of it happening.
(Dennis Miller one time had a line about being on a plane with kids going to Bible school, and how it was terrifying to be the only one aboard who was afraid of crashing.)
Well I have nothing more profound to say; if you want a deep thought read Philippians 4:6-9:
6 Be anxious for nothing, but in everything by prayer and supplication, with thanksgiving, let your requests be made known to God; 7 and the peace of God, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and minds through Christ Jesus.
8 Finally, brethren, whatever things are true, whatever things are noble, whatever things are just, whatever things are pure, whatever things are lovely, whatever things are of good report, if there is any virtue and if there is anything praiseworthy—meditate on these things. 9 The things which you learned and received and heard and saw in me, these do, and the God of peace will be with you.
Talk About a Softball
I am in the middle of doing a radio show Saturday night to promote my book. When the show went to its first commercial break, all of a sudden I couldn’t hear anything. Yet, I could tell I was still on the line.
So I called the station from my cell phone, while holding the landline to my other ear. I got the producer and explained the situation. He said, “Well, we’re still showing you on hold, so let’s keep your cell open too. If we don’t have you when we come back from break, we’ll switch to your cell without missing a beat.”
So anyway once the show came back (I could hear the commercials on my cell phone), the landline came back on; I could hear everything. So I hung up my cell.
Then I heard the host say, “Welcome back folks we’re talking to Dr. Robert Murphy about his new book The Politically Incorrect Guide to the Great Depression and the New Deal. If you’d like to ask Dr. Murphy a question…oh, we just lost the caller. Well if you’d like to ask Dr. Murphy about our current crisis, the toll-free number is…”
I had a hilarious idea because of the above episode. Are you thinking what I’m thinking?
Why the Editor of The New Republic Hasn’t Quieted My Inflation Fears
Bob Roddis sends me this short video of TNR Senior Editor Noam Sheiber explaining why Allan Meltzer was wrong to worry about inflation:
When I get some time, I want to return and pick apart the fallacy in the Phillips Curve–the alleged tradeoff between unemployment and price inflation. My starting point will be Brad DeLong’s recent class notes which omit a key period from his historical scatter plots; someone please remind me if I forget to come back to this during the next week.
But for now, here are some points I’d like Sheiber to explain:
* If we can’t have inflation now because of an output gap, then what happened in the 1970s? (I don’t mean that as a finishing move; if the Keynesians have a story to explain away stagflation, I’d like to know what the story is.)
* If the 25% unemployment of 1933 (and yes it was just in that year, not throughout the 1930s as Sheiber implies) were due to a deflationary spiral, then why wasn’t unemployment higher during the much more severe deflation during the 1920-1921 depression?
* If the worst thing in the world would be falling prices–since they lead people to postpone purchases, etc.–then what happened during the late 1920s, when prices fell every year from 1926-1928? I’m pretty sure businesses made a lot of sales during this period.
==> I predict that Sheiber’s video here is going to make him look as ridiculous as all the analysts (like Ben Stein etc.) who told us not to worry about the housing boom and to go buy stocks. (And yes, I made my own mea culpa here, in case newcomers think they are going to bust me for hypocrisy.) And to make my own position falsifiable, here you go: If the non-seasonally adjusted CPI rises at less than a 5% annualized rate in 4q 2009, I will admit I have been a fool for my warnings, and that I clearly don’t know what I am talking about. I am going to be extremely surprised if all of the money printing and unbelievable deficit spending don’t start pushing up US prices this year.
(Note that I may have made more aggressive inflation predictions elsewhere; this is not to be seen as backing away from them, I just don’t want to look them up right now.)
Don’t Call It a Comeback
Please excuse the lag in posting, but I had quite a hectic schedule this past week. I was in Houston for two events related to my book; below are pictures of me with my chaperone and host David Hutzelman (and a Texas-sized gift basket from Rob and Nancy Bradley) and then with Barry Klein, who organized the Friday event at which more than 100 people showed up.
Just a reminder, for those in the Nashville area, I am giving a book talk this coming Monday evening, and for those in the Bismarck area, I will be at the North Dakota Policy Council this coming Saturday. Details here.
But now I’m back, and there are plenty of things to catch up on. Brad DeLong, Paul Krugman, Gavin at RealClimate, and all my friends have been busy beavers in my absence.
Oh and don’t forget, tomorrow is Mother’s Day! If you forget to call her…well let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.
Murphy Media
Here is the mp3 of my appearance on the G. Gordon Liddy show. He was actually a really sweet guy, no lie. But during the commercial break somehow it came up that he and other FBI agents were once asked to provide extra security for President Eisenhower. Liddy said that he had been chosen because they had electronically clocked it that he could go from holster to shot in 64 hundredths of a second.
Then here is the video of the Heritage panel on green jobs. (Note that two of us are hardcore Rothbardians! The melding of theory and policy!)
Incidentally, Joe Romm deconstructed us at the blog Tom Friedman finds “indispensable.” I’m not being sarcastic, I really don’t even understand Romm’s post. Is that him writing? What’s with the italics, and why is he crossing out words? If he’s correcting somebody else’s commentary, whose is it?
Hotel Follies
I’m back in the hotel (briefly) before heading out to dinner with the other members of the truth commission participating in Heritage’s “green jobs” panel. I also have some good anecdotes from G. Gordon Liddy’s show this morning. But I’ll post the links and stories later.
For now, two hotel points:
* Does the Embassy Suites know game theory? See, I want to watch the movie Taken later tonight when I get back from dinner. But IER is taking care of the hotel bill. So is it going to show up as “Taken,” or just “A movie Monday night”? Because I hear–“really baby it’s not mine”–that hotels don’t put naughty titles on your hotel bill. But if they do list the titles of normal movies (which just feature good wholesome things like adult kidnappings and information derived through torture), then that defeats the purpose. So, I’m basically wondering if the expense department at IER is going to receive a signal of poor quality. I’m sure there is a Bayesian joke in here somewhere.
* You know how when you watch X-Men you wish you had a mutant power? Well I have realized over several hotel stays that one of my powers is the ability to demagnetize hotel room keys even that are nowhere near my cell phone. Not sure when this will prove useful. If I am able to levitate metal objects as well, I’ve yet to figure out how.
Radical Libertarian Fiction
I don’t have the time right now to read fiction, but J. L. Bryan is giving away–that’s right giving away folks!–his latest novel concerning the completely unrealistic scenario where the US government becomes tyrannical.
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