Learn Austrian Business Cycle Theory!
(Cross-posted at Mises.org.)
I am a very awkward promoter, which is why it’s such a good thing that this online class in Austrian business cycle theory sells itself. Just click the link.
We are tentatively scheduling the live lectures at 7pm EST, to accommodate as many time zones as possible. Of course, if you have a conflict it’s not a dealbreaker; the lectures will be recorded so you can view them at your convenience.
We’ve always bounced around the possibility of online classes, but the technology was never quite there to do it right. Well check out the screen shots at the bottom of the above link. Grayson Lilburne and I have been testing out the software, and the technology has arrived.
If you have always wanted to learn more about Austrian business cycle theory, but were too busy to come down to Auburn for a week in the summer, this class is for you.
The class begins Monday, April 12—two weeks from today! Sign up now.
Haiti Here I Come!
Yikes! Sorry everyone, I forgot to let you know that these guys decided my marginal product would be nonnegative.* I am going to Haiti for a week at the end of April.
Based on their instructions, it will be pretty hardcore. For example, they told me to bring a mosquito net to put around my sleeping bag at night.
* I apologize for the geeky econ jokes, but I have to cater to the crowd. It is the analog of fart jokes in Mike Myers’ movies.
Job Sums It Up
I was always in awe of people who memorized Bible verses, because that’s never something I was very good at. Even though I “know a lot” in economics (and I used to in physics), it wasn’t because I memorized things, it was rather because I understood how the principles worked and then I could reconstruct them on a test.
Well the only way to become “mighty in the Scriptures” is to memorize your first Bible verse. Fortunately, the verse from Job that I spotlighted earlier just continues to amaze me, and so I have tucked it away as the first verse I have memorized. On top of its inherent profundity, it is easy to remember: it’s Job 28:28:
And to man He said,
‘ Behold, the fear of the Lord, that is wisdom,
And to depart from evil is understanding.’”
I think this is amazing on many levels. Let me list some of them:
(1) It is direct revelation (assuming Job is correct in his report). If you read the context, you’ll see that the Lord is telling man where to find wisdom, after telling all the places wisdom isn’t.
(2) Telling us where to find wisdom, is just the kind of thing you need expert testimony on. Even though it’s really annoying when you’re 16 and your parents say, “Well, you’ll understand when you’re older and have your own kids,” strictly speaking you really don’t know if they’re right or not. No matter how intelligent you are, you can’t predict how you will analyze things after a lifetime of experience. So if you can understand why it’s a good idea–why it’s wise–to listen to your grandparents tell you their thoughts on life, then a fortiori it’s a good idea to listen to what God has to say about things. And in particular, it’s wise to listen to Him tell you what the epitome of wisdom is. (I’m not trying to be cute here, this reflexivity, if you will, of the passage just floored me.)
(3) The passage is completely unexpected, at least from a naive secular viewpoint. As I said last time, I would not have thought stressing fear would be something a holy person would do, and yet it’s all over the Old Testament. A cynic of course would say, “Yeah, primitive cultures kept people in line by scaring them with the angry man in the sky myth,” but when you read, say, David in the Psalms talking of the fear of the Lord, that’s not really what’s going on. And it’s the same thing here with Job: It’s very strange at first to think that wisdom consists of knowing what you should fear, isn’t it?
But here’s how I have been thinking about it lately: When you “fear no evil,” but fear the Lord, that’s showing that you understand how the world works. For example, if someone wanted to advance in a company and got on the good side of the CEO’s wife–because he had observed that whoever she liked, ended up getting promotions etc.–then we might say that guy is shrewd. If his competitor ignored the wife, and tried to directly suck up to the boss, we might describe him as foolish, for not understanding how the power is really wielded.
So it’s the same with our world. It’s not simply immoral or cowardly to fear the CIA, a mugger, an earthquake, or even the devil himself. It shows that you don’t really believe in God’s might. Any power those things have over you, is only because the Lord has permitted them to have it. Job of all people understands this, and yet he remains faithful.
(4) The last part is incredibly profound as well: “…and to depart from evil is understanding.” It reinforces my growing understanding that God’s commandments serve a purpose. There’s a reason you’re not supposed to sin, and it’s not simply to avoid getting turned into a pillar of salt. Job could’ve said, “…and to depart from evil is obedience,” but he didn’t, he said it was understanding. When you tell your little kid to stay away from the street, or else you’ll punish him, at first the kid obeys out of fear (of you). But as the child matures he begins to understand why you laid down that rule.
The Bounty of Capitalism
I just posted this over at the Mises Blog. I am disagreeing with Sheldon Richman’s critique of the word capitalism for libertarian usage. An excerpt:
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This was all driven home for me when Grayson Lilburne sent me an email on Friday. We are working out the bugs before we formally launch the promotion for the Mises Academy and the online business cycle course I will be leading. (Official details soon!) But here was Grayson’s quick note to me:
Great! I tried the web meeting software a bit. But I definitely want to test it out with you, and then figure out a way to somehow test its ability to handle a large number of participants…I’m going to drop my wife and her friend off at Disneyland and then set up shop in a Starbucks with my laptop (should only take a couple hours or so), and then be available for doing…Video stuff the rest of the day. But I’ll have my iphone before that, so feel free to e-mail me questions.
Grayson
Just reflect on what he is saying in the above. That would have been science fiction not very long ago. Incidentally, once Grayson got set up–in a coffee shop–to work, he and I were talking over a video connection. He was some 2,000 miles away from me at that point.
Note that this didn’t happen in a libertarian novel where “the freed market” is allowed to operate. This happened in our current, real-world United States. I say chalk one (or more like 1 million) up to capitalism.
Is Bryan Caplan Hedging With the Phillips Curve?!
Bryan Caplan has bet me that (price) inflation will be no big deal. Spotting an easy mark, Mish rushed in for his piece of the action, as Bryan explains:
On the fiscal crisis panel, Mish predicted high unemployment for the next ten years. This provoked a lot of heat but little light. Over dinner, though, Mish and I hammered out the following bet:
==>If the official initially reported U.S. monthly unemployment rate falls below 8.0% for any month between now and June, 2015, I win $100. Otherwise, Mish wins $100.
Mish based his pessimism on the implausibility of rapid job growth in construction and other key sectors. I saw this as misleading “near” reasoning – and took the “far” road instead. My position: During the last big recession in the Eighties, the unemployment rate fell about 1 percentage-point per year after the peak. So while full recovery is indeed about five years away, it would be very surprising if unemployment stayed at 8% or more for three years, much less five.
I’m more confident in my bet, than I would be in Mish’s. But I really don’t understand why Bryan is so confident that this is just a nasty recession. Has he seen how much they are announcing they will raise taxes in the health insurance legislation? Does Bryan think that a year-plus of virtually 0% fed funds rate won’t do anything to the “real” economy?
A Reader Question That I Cannot Answer
And when I say I cannot answer the question, I mean it in the Airplane (“I can’t tell, sir.” “You can tell me, I’m the captain”) way.
Sam asks:
Here’s something to explain in your blog : What is with the internet marketing strategy of putting ugly people’s faces next to totally unrelated ad text??? Every day on cnbc.com, for just one example, there’s an ugly face next in an ad about refinancing your home. People must be paying thousands for these ads… Has some marketing guru shown that people will be drawn to click on your ad if it includes a picture of someone with rotten teeth or some other disfigurement?
Yes, Victor Aguilar Paid Me the $1000
A lot of people have asked me if Victor Aguilar actually paid me $1000 when I answered his critique of Austrian economics. Yes, he did.
Psssst… Earlier I misspoke. But you should still come to Nashville in July.
In a previous, top secret post, I revealed that Carlos Lara and I are hosting a liberty extravaganza in Nashville on July 16 (and a workshop on July 17). The lineup are all Friends of Rothbard, including Paul Cleveland, Nelson Nash (inventor of the Infinite Banking Concept), Tom Woods, me, and the dapper Robert Wenzel. [Update: Wenzel has another business commitment and can’t come in July. We are working on a replacement.]
As I explained in the prior post, there is going to be a latency period in which the website for signing up for the event is up and running, but before we officially go public with it. (We are in consultation with Sarah Palin for her to wear the URL on a t-shirt. That lady is a pitbull when it comes to money.) So if you want us to email you the link, please register here at Carlos’ site. Doing this entails no obligation on your part. I have been on Carlos’ list for a while, and at most he sends out two articles a month, many of which are reruns of my Mises dailies.
The one thing where I misspoke in the original post, was that I misunderstood what Carlos had said to his special clients (to whom he wants to give this advance registration ability). He is actually giving them until April 9 before we then go public with our promotions etc. So, naturally I think you guys are just as special as Carlos’ friends, so you have the same privilege (curse?). In the original post I implied that you would be gaining a day over the general public by signing up, whereas now I’m correcting that and saying you can see the event details immediately if you sign up with Carlos, whereas we won’t be doing the full media blitz until April 9th.
To be honest, we’re in no danger of selling out (we have a huge capacity if need be), and I’m pretty sure the hotel will work with us on the room bloc for discounted rates for our group. But there are still two remaining reasons you should sign up now, rather than wait for the media blitz:
(1) You have high time preference.
(2) You want to see a picture of Robert Wenzel. And not the dinky one with his head obscured by a computer screen (which I believe is designed to throw off the CIA), but a full frontal body shot. (Is he clothed? Maybe.)
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