Is the Dollar Doomed?
I linked to this Seeking Alpha post already, but even if you followed the link you may not have continued to the charts on Part 2. (Tim Swanson had stressed this in his original email to me.) Check these out:
We all knew the fiscal situation was bleak, but I didn’t realize just how bleak.
In related news, the WSJ reported yesterday: “China will push reform of the international currency system to make it more diversified and reasonable, and to reduce excessive reliance on the current reserve currencies, the People’s Bank of China said Friday.” We all know what that means:
The PBOC comments “fuel concern about reserve diversification undermining the U.S. currency,” said analysts at Credit Suisse.
China’s central bank said in the annual report that under the proposal, the IMF should “manage part of the reserves of its members” and be reformed to increase the rights of emerging markets and developing countries.
It also urged stronger monitoring of countries that issue reserve currencies. Central banks around the world hold more U.S. dollars and dollar securities than they do assets denominated in any other individual foreign currency.
That part I put in bold is particularly ominous. Sounds a bit like, “Hey, if we’re going to tie our economy to the U.S. dollar, we get some say in Federal Reserve policy.” It looks like they’re making it official.
David Icke: The Turning of the Tide
All right kids, I know I’ve been laying a lot of video on you lately. A while ago I mentioned the documentary Wake Up Call. By far, the most compelling guy from the clips of that movie, was David Icke.
I just watched Icke’s Turning of the Tide, and it is amazing. I don’t agree with him on everything, but wow this is an interesting worldview.
Below is the first clip; if you want the rest, go here.
JFK: Courage Under Fire?
This just occurred to me: I think the most plausible explanation for JFK’s demise is that people who controlled the government took him out. In other words, I think it is crazy to assume that (a) the mob or the Cubans could sneak past the Secret Service and (b) that these same mobsters or Cubans *could then convince the rest of the government to cover up their crime*. Maybe (a) is possible, but no way is (b) possible.
OK, so that means JFK was, in a sense, a prisoner of the presidency. In fact, he had the most bugged and monitored work place of any American. These people watched his every move; they had their guys–who were trained to kill–literally following him around 24-7. Kennedy knows he’s crossed these people and they are waiting for the right time.
Then on November 22, Kennedy realizes the motorcade is taking a decidedly unsafe route. Had he been alone, he would have seriously considered making a break for it, or blurting out the names of the key people.
But no, he just smiled and waved, because they had put his wife in the car with him.
Not a Fan of Geithner
James Quinn realizes there is some skullduggery afoot (HT2 Tim Swanson). I haven’t read the whole thing yet, but so far he’s my favorite part:
Part 3 of the plan was the fake stress test conducted by Tim Geithner, his Treasury Department, and the Federal Reserve. The entire stress test was a publicity stunt conducted to provide a false sense of confidence in the largest banks so they could fool investors into pouring billions of new capital into their bankrupt banks. The assumptions used in the stress test were stress free. Unemployment is already higher than the worst case scenario. The stress test time frame ended in 2010. The next wave of mortgage resets and foreclosures will hit in 2011 and 2012.
Government Medicine
I’m not a fan. An excerpt:
The government ruins everything it touches. Many high school graduates are functionally illiterate, even though per pupil funding is much higher now than in previous generations. Despite billions in subsidies over the years, Amtrak continues to lose money. The Post Office, though not an official arm of the government, enjoys a monopoly on first-class mail and is not renowned for its efficiency. And when a comedian wants to illustrate poor customer service, his reference case is the Department of Motor Vehicles.
Why in the world do so many people want to entrust this same government with our health care?
Was Keynes a Good Investor?
In a post chocked full of interesting tidbits, Scott Sumner reveals that Keynes as an investor got wiped out in 1920 but his father bailed him out. That changes everything, according to Sumner:
Don’t anyone write in and tell me that Keynes made lots of other good investments, because if you’ve got a rich backstop, none of that matters. Here’s what I’d do if Bill Gates was willing to lend me $3.57 billion dollars for a day:
I’d go to Vegas and put $5 million on numbers 1 through 34 on the roulette wheel. The odds are roughly 90% I’d win. If I did so, I’d win $180 million on a bet of $170 million. I repay the $3.57 billion and pocket my $10 million dollars and be rich for the rest of my life, clipping coupons. If numbers 35, 36, 0, or 00 came up I’d bet again, this time $100 million on each number 1 through 34. If I won, I’d receive $3.6 billion, repay Gates, and have $30 million dollars to spend for the rest of my life. The odds are nearly 99% that I’d win one of these two bets. Of course if both failed, I’d be in big trouble. But that’s not very likely is it?
What’s the point? If you have a rich backstop it’s relatively easy to come up with investment strategies that will usually (not always) make you look like a genius.) From now on I will never believe anyone who tells me that Keynes was a great investor.
Unfortunately, Sumner goes on to argue that if you disagree with him, you support Hitler, or something almost as silly. But overall, still an excellent post. See too his rating of Wilson versus Harding.
A Note on Mass Emails
It amazes me how many people still do this: If you are sending out a mass email–e.g. “everyone should read this Forbes piece on Obama’s health plan!!”–then please put your 3 dozen recipients’ email addresses in the BCC field of your email. That way, people’s privacy is more protected, and they are not susceptible to someone hitting Reply All just to say, “Wow thanks for sending that!”
In some cases, to show you care and how special people are, it might make sense to let all the recipients of your email see each other. But if the list is more than a dozen, nobody feels special.
Murphy Tells Sacramento Pols How to Extract More From Their Citizens
The video from my April 9 testimony on California tax reform is finally up. No, I do not have a Gorbachev birthmark on my cheek. What happened is that the combination of the TSA’s restrictions on carrying good razors, coupled with a poor bathroom lighting situation at my hotel, meant that I didn’t realize I had caked blood on my face. Suh-weet.
So anyway, if you go to this link, you can see (portions of) my testimony. (I was the first one in the Morning portion.) If you are super super bored, check out the guy who went after me. He was so in-your-face during the Q&A period that I had to restrain myself from laughing out loud.
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