29 Jun 2009

Glenn Greenwald Busts Hypocritical Obama Supporters

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I am so glad that Glenn Greenwald has been consistent in his treatment of Bush and Obama. I loved his scathing critiques of the Constitution-chuckin’ cowboy in the White House, but I was bracing for GG to come up with excuses for Obama (as so many have done). But not Glenn:

Ever since Obama reversed himself on the question of whether to suppress the torture photos, I’ve been searching for an Obama supporter who (a) defends his decision to suppress those photos but also (b) criticized him when, two weeks earlier, he announced that he would release those photos. I haven’t found such a person yet, but I’m still looking.

When Obama originally announced he would release the photos, he was attacked on seemingly every television news show by people like Lindsey Graham, Liz Cheney and Joe Lieberman for endangering the Troops, but I don’t know of a single Democrats who joined in with those criticisms on the ground that the photos shouldn’t be released. But as soon as Obama changed his mind and embraced the Graham/Cheney/Lieberman position, up rose hordes of Obama supporters suddely insisting that those photos must be suppressed because to release them would be to endanger the Troops. I’m still searching for any pro-photo-suppression Democrats who criticized Obama when he triggered controversy by orginally announcing he would release them.

That is one of the most beautiful arguments I have ever seen in the political arena. He totally busted about 10 million people in this country. And I bet there are some of them who, if they read GG’s post, would realize that was true of them, and yet they hadn’t sensed any problem at the time. It all seemed so natural, and with Obama being picked on by that meanie Rush Limbaugh, one’s inclination would be to defend him no matter what.

29 Jun 2009

Update On My Erroneous Gold Call

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Time is slipping away (busy busy busy), so let me put my finger on the single biggest mistake I think I made regarding my January 23rd call for gold to break $1000 by the summer.

First, let me give myself a break. At the time of the call, gold was about $878 (I’m just eyeballing the charts from Kitco, so I might be off a bit). Right now, gold is trading at about $942, using the same metric (London Fix).

So that means I was calling for an increase of (122/878)= about 14% over five months, which (normally) is a fairly aggressive call, especially when most “experts” were worrying about massive, 1930s-style deflation in January.

Instead of getting the 14% in five months, instead gold only went up about half that, i.e. a little more than 7%. So that was still a strong move, especially in the context of plenty of people warning of terrible deflation.

Nonetheless, I foolishly said that if gold didn’t break $1,000 by summer, then I didn’t know what I was talking about. What happened is that I really thought gold would be much higher than $1,000 by now, and so I (thought) I was building in a big cushion by only saying $1,000.

Looking back, I can reconstruct what I believe was my downfall: At the time, there were analysts and even some Congresspeople who were criticizing the banks for sitting on all of the TARP money and Fed-related bailouts. The idea was, “Why are we giving you hundreds of billions, if you’re not going to start making new loans?”

So I was confident that those excess reserves would soon be flowing into the hands of the public, and that broader monetary aggregates like M1 and M2 would be growing rapidly through the first half of 2009.

I was (of course) wrong. For some reason, I actually took the politicians seriously when they said they were going to do something to “fix” the economy (i.e. pressure banks to lend out reserves).

29 Jun 2009

What to Do if an Infant or Toddler Is Choking

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The other day my four-year-old was choking on some orange slices for about 2 seconds, but those were a terrifying 2 seconds. So I decided to banish my fears through knowledge, and refreshed my memory on CPR for little guys. The below video is about 8 minutes, but it’s really good. (You also have to sit through a short commercial in the beginning.) Even if you’ve read up on how to do these techniques, it’s good to see this guy do them on the mannequins, to get an idea of how hard you’re supposed to smack their back, or thrust upward in a Heimlich, etc.

29 Jun 2009

Feynman Is Awesome

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A flurry of Richard Feynman YouTubes has been hitting the blogosphere, so I’m guessing someone recently uploaded his interview(s). Seriously, if you’ve never read anything by this guy, you should definitely check out his work; I review the pop stuff here.

Robert Wenzel posted this 6-minute clip that nicely captures what Feynman is all about. (The last 30 seconds is a great finale to the whole clip.) If you like the below, you’ll love the rest of his (pop) stuff.

29 Jun 2009

Krugman Vindicates Jeff Tucker

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A while ago, when I was considering working for the Institute for Energy Research, I was talking with Jeff Tucker about climate change. He agreed that it would be a “hot topic” for a while, and so that I didn’t need to worry about specializing in the equivalent of Betamax cassettes. Then he said, “Climate change is the Left’s War on Terror.”

From Krugman’s NYT column today (HT2 Bill Anderson)

Do you remember the days when Bush administration officials claimed that terrorism posed an “existential threat” to America, a threat in whose face normal rules no longer applied? That was hyperbole — but the existential threat from climate change is all too real.

Yet the deniers are choosing, willfully, to ignore that threat, placing future generations of Americans in grave danger, simply because it’s in their political interest to pretend that there’s nothing to worry about. If that’s not betrayal, I don’t know what is.

28 Jun 2009

An Unexpected Invitation from the LORD

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In the first chapter of Isaiah, the prophet recounts his vision of the Lord. He relays standard Old Testament warnings about how the children of Israel are forgetting their blessings, and that their obedience to rituals is not what the Lord seeks. But then Isaiah says:

18 “Come now, let us reason together,”
says the LORD.

“Though your sins are like scarlet,
they shall be as white as snow;
though they are red as crimson,
they shall be like wool.

19 If you are willing and obedient,
you will eat the best from the land;

20 but if you resist and rebel,
you will be devoured by the sword.”
For the mouth of the LORD has spoken.

To repeat something I’ve been saying a lot on this blog, the God of the Jewish and Christian Bible wants you to use your reason. He gave it to you as a gift and tool. This alleged hostility between faith and reason (or science and reason) is spurious. There are atheists and fundamentalists who loudly tell us about this hostility, but they are wrong.

27 Jun 2009

More Conspiracy Theories

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The Waxman-Markey bill squeaked through the House. I think it is undeniable that the coverage of Michael Jackson’s death helped in its passage. People were distracted by the coverage of Jackson, and so not as many called their representatives to complain.

The obvious conspiracy theory suggests itself, especially when you lump in Farrah Fawcett and Ed McMahon. I am not advancing this as a serious theory, but I will say this: If Waxman-Markey squeaks through the Senate later this year, and Paul McCartney dies the night before, I’m gonna be really suspicious. (And if you throw in Jaclyn Smith and Burt Ward the same week, I will smell a rat for sure.)

27 Jun 2009

IER Calls for End to All Energy Subsidies

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The Washington Post recently sounded very free market in its objections to subsidies for “clean coal.” An IER commentary says:

When coal is concerned, the Post recognizes how the incentives Members of Congress face lead to troubling results. The Post’s editors should remove their blinders to examine how their concerns about coal subsidies apply equally to the renewable subsidies the Post supports.

The Post should join the Institute for Energy Research and call for an end to all energy subsidies. That would at least make them intellectually consistent.

I know there are numerous other sins of which IER has been accused, but I hope “you should officially call for an end to all subsidies” now comes off the list.