Bob Murphy Show Twin Spin

29 Nov 2019

Bob Murphy Show Twin Spin

Bob Murphy Show, Economics, Religious, Secession 1 Comment

In ep. 80 I reproduced my interview with Patrick from the “Cave to the Cross” apologetics podcast (video below). Among other things, we tackled the question, “Would the laws of economics be true in the Garden of Eden?”

Then in ep. 81 I have Jeffrey Rogers Hummel on to talk more about the economics of slavery, and at the end we get into his analysis of why the South lost the Civil War when they could’ve won with a different military strategy.

One Response to “Bob Murphy Show Twin Spin”

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Tel says:
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Slightly off topic but has anyone studied this one?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N

From the linked research article (Jeremy Max Piger):

How are these probabilities calculated?

Monthly smoothed recession probabilities are calculated from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching (DFMS) model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This DFMS model was originally developed in Chauvet, M. “An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switches,” International Economic Review, 1998.

Should we take it seriously? It’s about one month behind so October is available but November is not. There’s been a recent uptick, not panic stations yet … but something to think about.