Archive for Efficient Markets Hypothesis
Am I Just a Permabear?
In the comments of this post, Gene Callahan doesn’t shirk his duty of constantly assuming I started reading financial economics last Tuesday: But Bob, weren’t you predicting market disaster when the Dow was at 6000? (I was buying at that point, fwiw.) Weren’t you predicting it through the whole rise of the last seven years? […]
Read more3 Stock Market Tips From an Economist
My latest at FEE. (They picked the title mostly for irony, I think.) You guys think you’ve placed me in a neat little anti-EMH box, don’t you? And then BAM I write something like this: Suppose your brother-in-law says: “I’ve got a great stock tip! I found this company, Acme, that makes fireworks. Let’s wait […]
Read moreA Note on Stock Market Volatility
So if I promise to criticize myself, can I get a blogging gig at EconLog? I understand the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, and I think it’s a very good way to take a first crack at the markets. The thing that annoys me about many EMH proponents is that they think they are being empirical and […]
Read moreFinanciers vs. Academic Economists
My friend tipped me off to this speech by Charlie Munger that is quite provocative and funny, mostly because he says stuff that only rich old guys can get away with saying. For context, Munger is Vice-Chairman at Berkshire Hathaway, and apparently Warren Buffett refers to Munger as “my partner.” Munger is a self-made man worth […]
Read moreYou’ve Heard of Moneyball…
…now get a load of the Efficient Majors Hypothesis, or EMH. A sample: EUGENE: All right, it’s worth asking what those fees for active management have actually delivered to the investors. I ran a statistical analysis on the National League all the way back to 1876. Do you know that in every single season, when […]
Read moreClarification on Fama vs. Shiller
In the comments here at Free Advice, regarding my Mises CA post on Fama, J Mann was bringing up some good points. In response to one of his comments I wrote the following clarification, which may help some of you: J Mann wrote: If I’m being as charitable as I can to Fama, then if […]
Read moreMore EMH Silliness
I love this stuff. Scott Sumner scoffs at those thinking Robert Shiller contributed anything useful by warning of a stock bubble in 1996 or a real estate bubble in 2003. He quotes from Fama, who at first seems to blow Shiller up with some numbers. But I’m pretty sure I show that Fama’s arguments make […]
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