Consulting by RPM || Free Advice Blog

3 Responses to “Keeping Up With My Podcasts”

1. Reply

   Tel says:

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   I note that Peter Schiff episode #196 wrings hands about mostly the same stuff as you and Carlos … Deutsche Bank, etc. I guess a lot of people are worried. Lately I’ve been hearing warnings all over the place: Sydney real estate is supposedly about to crash (I think it eventually will crash, not right now), warnings about Japanese banks too… everyone has a favourite doom theory about where the cracks will show.

   Schiff is really cranking out the podcasts these days, haven’t had a chance to listen to #197 yet. Will get onto that this morning.

   BTW: regarding the problem of how to pay Social Security, I think I pointed out some years back that the reason this doesn’t get counted as government debt in the official statistics, is that there is no “debt” strictly speaking. All Social Security pay-outs from government are voluntary not considered a contractual requirement. Maybe some people think that after spending a lifetime paying in they are entitled to something back, but legally no that’s not the case. They are entitled to nothing, but might get something.

2. Reply

   Tel says:

   at

   Speaking of the doom warnings… has anyone linked this one yet?

   https://youtu.be/_quzw3rMWOM

   Does anyone know when that interview happened? Looks like Ron Paul is slightly younger there, but I don’t remember seeing this video any time earlier and I do try to track the majority of these interviews (I’m sure there’s some I’ve missed).

   • Reply

     Tel says:

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     Just following up on my own question here…

     Ron Paul is working with Porter Stansberry, who is selling a book “America 2020 – The Survival Blueprint” and that contains some investment advice.

     DISCLAIMER: I haven’t read the book, I have no idea whether his advice is any good, and I’m not officially qualified to give investment advice anyway, however here’s some clues from an interview with Porter Stansberry (three years old now):

     http://www.kitco.com/ind/GoldReport/2013-07-04-Porter-Stansberry-Reveals-the-Greatest-Threat-to-the-U-S-Economy-and-One-Easy-Way-to-Protect-Yourself.html

     I still am buying real estate. I’m closing on another big farm in about 10 days. I don’t want to buy stocks. They’re too expensive. I definitely don’t want to buy bonds. They’re an absolute wealth trap. I don’t want to invest any more in my own business because I’m worried about the effects of this economic uncertainty. So what do I do? I hide the money in real estate. I buy an agricultural property. If agricultural prices go up, and I believe they must, eventually, as the dollar falls, the farm becomes more profitable. Wealthy people have sheltered their assets against inflation in farmland and timberland for all of recorded history.

     Pretty standard strategy to protect against a monetary inflation scenario. Doesn’t really protect against sovereign risk but it gives you some tangible asset. Hardly a unique strategy though, and if everyone dives into real estate… well we have already seen bubbles in Japan 1990 and then USA 2007. As with all of these bubble games, you win or lose depending on timing more than anything intrinsic.

     Checking his predictions from 2013 until today:

     I am more bullish on natural gas today than I have ever been in my life. I think you’re going to see a huge bull move in these stocks as their earnings ratchet higher and the market suddenly realizes that natural gas is at $3.50 per thousand cubic feet ($3.50/Mcf) rather than $2/Mcf. I am talking about producers in the natural gas space.

     Hmmm, checking the FRED charts, I see there’s one called “NATURALGAS” which shows consumption has been trending up since 2010 … nothing spectacular, better than a kick in the bum. LNG prices stayed high until 2014 but they have flopped back down again as part of the general slump in commodity prices… hardly the “huge bull move” he predicted. Seems like this guy is as much in the dark as the rest of us.

     Not in any great rush to go out and buy his book. Yes the problems that Ron Paul describes are real, but personally I very much doubt there’s any easy way out of it. Just stay on your toes, keep your eyes open and do your best. Trust no one.