27
Jan
2016
Potpourri
==> Rob Bradley wants Resources for the Future to pay attention to Judith Curry and me. (Here’s an old RFF paper which shows how powerful the “tax interaction effect” can be.)
==> David Stockman is not bullish at the moment.
==> Jeffrey Rogers Hummel explains some technicalities of the budget deal, that affect Fed accounting.
==> Tyler Cowen again shows us how awesome Austrian business cycle theory is, without himself endorsing it.
==> Phil Magness on the inequality literature before Piketty.
Stockman seems to be some kind of permabear. And sell your bonds? Poor advice. Housing in the more supply-restricted areas of the United States is surely a good investment, though not a very liquid one.
I don’t trust Tyler Cowen on much of anything these days.
Geroge Soros is going for a Streisand effect and the Chinese media are playing into it like well trained poodles.
The louder they deny that the Yuan is devaluing the more people notice it is indeed devaluing and then it’s a massive tidal wave pile on. Ahhh well, only one way to learn and might as well happen to the Chinese Party machinery. Dunno how long that’s going to take… three months? six months? See how many foreign currency reserves China’s banks are willing to throw into it. Can’t send thugs to beat up Soros like they do with local journalists.
Funny old game that momentum trading, Soros explains it in his book. He calls it “reflexivity” and this is a classic positive feedback situation… Chinese government trying to achieve a “managed” devaluation, implies that everyone already knows there’s going to be a devaluation, so in that case, why not front run? It would be a sure thing, right?
Chinese people don’t want to watch their savings pissed away so they buy foreign currency, amplifies the effect, thus convincing those Chinese citizens they did the right thing to buy foreign currency, round and round it goes. Reflexivity.
Star Wars: The Force Awakens sucked.
You mentioned that you and Tom Woods had opposing views about this on one of the Contra Krugman episodes.
Knowing that one of you thinks it didn’t suck makes me sad.
Might be difficult to trade if everyone had the same preferences.