12
Dec
2015
Krugman Says Economy Not So Bad
Tom and I discuss his column in Contra Krugman Episode 13.
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- Weak States, Not Limited States: Early Ming Governance and the Illusion of Proto-Liberalism
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- The British North American Colonies Were Not Homogeneous Political Units
- What Is the Role of Probability in Economics?
Let’s see if Krugman can accurately predict the next US downturn.
I’m convinced by Schiff… it’s coming within the next 12 months.
I give it 40 months.
Shedlock thinks we may already be in it:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/12/truck-rates-plunge-what-about-actual.html
Not a chance. The indicators I’m looking at are all on the side of no recession in the first half of 2016.
Okay, I my prediction for the next downturn to start has been for a while now between the middle of 2016 ( starting June/July ) to between 2018 ( June/July )
The reason I give the range is I figured that the housing bubble would have burst in 2005 – 2006 which did not happen. I forget about irrational exuberance which kept it going far longer than it should have. So now I try to hedge my bets by giving ranges lol. I was worried for a brief time that it had hit early in September/October this year but figured it was a correction and that people would allow the soothing words of the Fed to play on them a little while longer.
While I respect Schiff, he is a little jumpy about things like this and is always predicting that the bottom is going to fall out. 40 Months seems a little too long, but there is a chance it could be that long before it happens. Again irrational exuberance is a wonderful thing. I would also say that the longer it goes before the next downturn occurs the worse it will be.