11 Nov 2013

Nordhaus Not Even Warm in His Energy Sector Predictions

Climate Change, Krugman 3 Comments

An excerpt from my latest IER post:

Nordhaus’ terrible predictions about the energy sector in his 1973 paper have serious implications for present policy. William Nordhaus’ DICE model is one of three Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that the Obama Administration’s Working Group selected to estimate the “social cost of carbon.” This value in turn is used by EPA and other federal agencies to run cost/benefit analyses on proposed regulations. It is extremely alarming, to say the least, that the same guy who claimed in 1973 that optimal resource usage would have the U.S. “virtually exhaust” its domestic petroleum supplies over the next seven years, is one of three experts who are implicitly influencing regulations with his model of world energy markets that runs through the year 2300.

When it comes to Alan Greenspan warning about budget deficits, price inflation, and the need to cut government spending, Paul Krugman is happy to ask, “So has the ex-Maestro reconsidered his views after having been so wrong for so long? Not a bit.” Too bad Krugman won’t apply the same criterion to Nordaus, who thinks his computer simulations provide justification for imposing massive new taxes on the energy sector.

3 Responses to “Nordhaus Not Even Warm in His Energy Sector Predictions”

  1. Matt Tanous says:

    But if I learned anything from the “climate scientists” (and ignored everything I learned in school), computer simulations are exactly the same thing as laboratory experiments. All I need to do to prove anything is program a computer to run it – exactly with the parameters I expect will prove my hypothesis – and BINGO! Proof found. There’s nothing shady or insensible about any of this!

  2. Major_Freedom says:

    Love your energy related posts and articles.

    • Magus says:

      yeah. i feel like there’s more room for disagreement on the econ ones (even though I tend to agree with Bob). But when it comes to the energy posts, I’m just left shocked how anyone could disagree with Bob on what seems to me to be very obvious, non-controversial evidence and conclusions.

      Energy policy in the West is really bad and the politics behind it borderline insane.

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