25 Oct 2011

GDP Forecast Bask

All Posts 15 Comments

I am working on a research paper for investors (I have to pay the mortgage somehow) and I need to go back in time to see what the “consensus” forecast for (say) 4th quarter 2004 GDP was, as of 1st quarter 2004. Obviously I can use FRED to see what the actual GDP figures were, going back as far as I want, but ideally I want to see how these actual figures compared to what was expected, two or three quarters beforehand.

Any ideas?

15 Responses to “GDP Forecast Bask”

  1. Brent says:
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    http://www.economics.harvard.edu/files/faculty/40_econout_hbc.pdf

    “The Administration expects real GDP to increase
    4.0 percent during the four quarters of 2004. This projection is close to that in the latest Blue
    Chip consensus economic forecast (as of January 10, 2004).”

    • Brent says:
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      I read elsewhere that the Fed Reserve Bank in Philly polled 32 “professional forecasters” and came up with predictions of 4.6% growth in RGDP for 2004 and 3.9% growth in 2005. If that helps you.

      • Bob Murphy says:
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        But they had been reading Scott Sumner at the time.

  2. Daniel Kuehn says:
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    The most highly regarded source is the Philadelphia fed’s survey – data here: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters/

    My macro professor at GW is actually one of the guys that’s regularly surveyed for this.

    • Bob Murphy says:
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      Perfect that’s exactly what I needed. I’ll go to the mall and blow $50 today, to help the economy in your name.

      • Rick Hull says:
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        A. Borders went out of business
        B. Do they even carry the MES Study Guide?

        • MamMoTh says:
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          it was their unsold inventory that brought them down

    • MamMoTh says:
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      Professional forecasters? Are these people paid by the Fed to give their forecast?

      • Richard Moss says:
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        No. They are paid because that helps the economy.

  3. Pike says:
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    Here is how good these forecasts are:

    http://danieljmitchell.wordpress.com/2010/01/10/dont-trust-economists/

  4. Jorge Borlandelli says:
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    I was going to suggest Bloomberg

  5. David S. says:
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    You don’t even know where to get basic data. lmao Enjoy your second career, Pastor Murf.

    • Dan says:
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      Lame

      • Richie says:
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        Oh Dan, pay him no mind. He’s just an intellectual lightweight that suffers from little-man syndrome or micro-penis. You’ll notice he adds nothing to the discussion other than insults, which take the form of a 13 year-old girl texting what with all of the lmaos and lols. He’s merely a fly.