17 Jul 2009

Last One: BLS’ SA CPI as of July 17, 2009

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Another post for posterity: I want to take a snapshot of the BLS’ figures for actual and seasonally adjusted CPI for the first half of 2009, since I predict that they will revise those figures later on, in order to suppress the reported monthly inflation rates.

Month….CPI….SA CPI

And while we have the numbers in front of us, just note again that actual CPI has risen at a 5.3% annualized rate this year, while seasonally adjusted CPI has only risen at a 2.7% rate. In and of itself this isn’t necessarily sinister, but it is surely odd that we are being told we’re on the edge of a deflationary cliff, when actual prices are rising at such a rate, and even when adjusted prices are rising at a rate higher than Bernanke’s “comfort zone”!

For those who are baffled, you must realize that Bernanke’s “comfort zone” of 1%-2% inflation refers not to the actual CPI, nor to the seasonally adjusted CPI, but to the “core” seasonally adjusted CPI, which has had those pesky and misleading items of food and energy taken out.

So don’t worry, inflation is well under control. Your government is in charge and is taking care of you.

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