Okay, I my prediction for the next downturn to start has been for a while now between the middle of 2016 ( starting June/July ) to between 2018 ( June/July )
The reason I give the range is I figured that the housing bubble would have burst in 2005 – 2006 which did not happen. I forget about irrational exuberance which kept it going far longer than it should have. So now I try to hedge my bets by giving ranges lol. I was worried for a brief time that it had hit early in September/October this year but figured it was a correction and that people would allow the soothing words of the Fed to play on them a little while longer.
While I respect Schiff, he is a little jumpy about things like this and is always predicting that the bottom is going to fall out. 40 Months seems a little too long, but there is a chance it could be that long before it happens. Again irrational exuberance is a wonderful thing. I would also say that the longer it goes before the next downturn occurs the worse it will be.
Let’s see if Krugman can accurately predict the next US downturn.
I’m convinced by Schiff… it’s coming within the next 12 months.
I give it 40 months.
Shedlock thinks we may already be in it:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/12/truck-rates-plunge-what-about-actual.html
Not a chance. The indicators I’m looking at are all on the side of no recession in the first half of 2016.
Okay, I my prediction for the next downturn to start has been for a while now between the middle of 2016 ( starting June/July ) to between 2018 ( June/July )
The reason I give the range is I figured that the housing bubble would have burst in 2005 – 2006 which did not happen. I forget about irrational exuberance which kept it going far longer than it should have. So now I try to hedge my bets by giving ranges lol. I was worried for a brief time that it had hit early in September/October this year but figured it was a correction and that people would allow the soothing words of the Fed to play on them a little while longer.
While I respect Schiff, he is a little jumpy about things like this and is always predicting that the bottom is going to fall out. 40 Months seems a little too long, but there is a chance it could be that long before it happens. Again irrational exuberance is a wonderful thing. I would also say that the longer it goes before the next downturn occurs the worse it will be.