On EconLog he recently had a post entitled, “Recessions often begin before the thing that caused them occurs.”
Now that is a deliberately provocative title, but I understand what he means and in principle I could agree with him (though not in the particulars of his post).
However, today at his blog Scott writes: “I thought yesterday’s policy announcement would offer a nice natural experiment, but instead it served up perhaps the most muddled stock market response I’ve ever seen.”
Sounds fine at first, but think about what he’s saying. Do you see the problem with it? If not, try this.