This is the closest I’ll come to an “I told you so” victory lap. (In the future I may refer to the warnings people in my camp have been issuing, especially if people claim I’m making it up, but I will try not to be snarky about it.)
Here’s Scott 9 days ago, talking about China, but then he generalizes:
I’m a bit more optimistic [about the Chinese economy], as I think the reform process will continue. They’ll avoid the middle-income trap. But they haven’t yet even reached the trap—a lot more growth is ahead. If you want to know when that day of reckoning will finally arrive in China, don’t come here looking for answers. I will miss the collapse, blinded by the EMH, just as I missed every other dramatic economic shock in my entire lifetime. My predictions are boring, and always the same:
“More of the same ahead”
My predictions are usually right, but they get no respect, and don’t deserve any.
One thing as you guys slug it out in the comments: It’s not enough to say, “But the S&P500 is up if you go back 18 months!” (or whatever). You would also “be up” if you had bought Treasuries 18 months ago. Most people buying equities do not expect the market to be this volatile, and given that it is, you need to earn a lot more than “breaking even over 18 months.”