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Toward a New (?) Theory of Inflation Forecasting

[UPDATE: In the analysis below, I neglected nominal interest rates, which would allow the spot price of gold to rise over time. In my examples it wouldn’t change too much, since short-term nominal rates were so low this year. But I think this might thwart Rothbard’s general critique of Fisher, returning it to the familiar […]

Gold Is Meant to Be Money

Think for a second about how awful government provision of a service is, compared to the market outcome, in fields like education, hospital administration, and automobile production. Now realize that the government has given itself an absolute monopoly in the money production industry. Without government central planning, the market would naturally return to commodities like […]

Laffer on Inflation Outlook

I was at first surprised by how similar Arthur Laffer’s analysis in today’s WSJ matches my own, but then I realized that working for him must have shaped the way I analyze certain things. Here’s his conclusion: Alas, I doubt very much that the Fed will do what is necessary to guard against future inflation […]

Standup in Preschool

Tyler Cowen linked to this. It’s pretty funny and incredibly cute (like Tyler?).

Thinking Outside the Box on Monetary Issues

Deep Thought #1: Let’s assume for the moment that there really is a cartel of international bankers who basically run the various governments and central banks. Wouldn’t it be to their advantage to reproduce the Japanese lost decade in as many places as possible? You get a bad economy, so the public allows you to […]

NDPC Free Market Forum Video Now Up

The video for three of the talks at the North Dakota Policy Council’s “Free Market Forum” is now posted. On the right side of the viewer, you can choose which talk to watch. Tom Woods is first, then me, then Michael LaFaive (from the Mackinac Center). At least on my laptop, when I click on […]

Potpourri

Bloomberg (HT2LRC) reports that Marc Faber is predicting Zimbabwe for the US economy: The U.S. economy will enter “hyperinflation” approaching the levels in Zimbabwe because the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise interest rates, investor Marc Faber said. Prices may increase at rates “close to” Zimbabwe’s gains, Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg […]

Just-So Darwinism

[UPDATE below.] I am not claiming in this brief post that “evolution is bunk” or that the Genesis account is the literal history of the six days of creation. What I am saying is that you will never find such open-ended, anything-goes theorizing in any scientific field other than evolutionary biology. Consider this article (HT2LRC) […]