28 Apr 2016

A Possible Flaw in the Way Economists Typically Solve Problems

Economics 26 Comments

I was helping some students study for an exam–the thing I was best at in my life was taking tests, so I always find ways to go back to that activity–and I encountered what may be a subtle inconsistency in the way economists typically solve these types of problems. But, before I decide whether I’ve actually stumbled on something worth pursuing, I first want to make sure other professional economists went down the same path I did.

So, in the comments, if you want to participate please tell me whether you have a degree (and what level) in economics, and then what you think the answers are to the questions.

THE QUESTIONS

There are 1,000 firms. Each firm must decide whether to produce corn or wheat. For firm i, the production function for corn is given by:

C_i = 2L_i^(2/3)

where _ denotes subscript and ^ denotes exponentiation. L_i is the number of units of labor hired by firm i.

For wheat the production function is:

W_i = ( 160L_i^(1/2) ) / n

where n is the number of firms who have chosen to go into wheat production.

The market prices for corn and wheat output are $3 and $5 per unit, the wage rate for labor is $4, and the interest rate is 10% per year. Each firm is a price taker in whatever line it goes into.

==> Calculate the profit-maximizing levels of output for a corn- and a wheat-producing firm, respectively.

==> In equilibrium, how many of the 1,000 firms will go into corn and how many into wheat production?

28 Apr 2016

Murphy Twin Spin

Shameless Self-Promotion No Comments

==> An interview on anarcho-capitalism and the liberty movement.

==> My talk on taxes in Bratislava:

22 Apr 2016

Outrageous Rulings in the Silk Road Trial

Big Brother 10 Comments

I have seen Lyn Ulbricht, Ross’ mom, give talks on how her son got railroaded in the “Silk Road” trial a few times. After the most recent one in San Antonio, I realized that a lot of libertarians probably aren’t aware of these details. Regardless of what you think about Silk Road, this is pretty jaw-dropping stuff. I think the 8-minute video below strikes the right compromise between details and your scarce time.

22 Apr 2016

The Problems With Carbon Tax “Border Adjustments”

Climate Change, Shameless Self-Promotion No Comments

This is counterintuitive for even academic economists, so if you’re into this stuff, don’t miss it. Here’s a key part:

The RFF [Resources for the Future] study does not so much come down against the use of border adjustments to mitigate the problem of “leakage,” but rather the authors are pointing out that economists have not yet fully recognized just how complicated the problems are. “Intuitive” results may in fact be wrong.

It would take too much space to fully summarize their various arguments, but let me at least give a flavor. In the first place, it makes a difference whether the underlying carbon tax (which is only imposed by some governments) is levied on extraction, production, or consumption. If some governments impose a tax on the extraction of carbon-intensive fuels, then the global (pre-tax) price of energy rises. This causes fossil fuel production to increase in non-carbon-taxing jurisdictions, which is a form of leakage on the supply side.

On the other hand, if a carbon tax is imposed by some governments on consumption, then the global (pre-tax) price of energy falls, which induces more consumption of fossil fuels in the non-carbon-taxing jurisdictions, which is a form of leakage on the demand side.

Already we can see that different governments would collect different amounts of revenue based on the form of a carbon tax, and that these different forms would induce different worldwide effects. In principle, border adjustments could help offset this leakage.

However, once you begin formally modeling these processes, you see that all kinds of outcomes are possible. For example, the authors can construct a scenario in which a country with large oil and gas resources and a domestic carbon tax on production would hurt the welfare of its people if it then added border adjustments, even though one might have originally thought that such an adjustment could only make things better.

(To give some of the details: This outcome could occur because initially, before the border adjustments, the government is implicitly getting foreigners to shoulder some of the cost of its domestic tax, due to the higher world price of energy that even foreign consumers must pay. But with border adjustments, energy can continue to flow to consumers in non-taxed jurisdictions with no impediment, and so there is no reason for their price of energy to rise. Therefore, once the border adjustments have been added, the taxing government is concentrating the brunt of its tax on its own people. Given that the government is going to levy a domestic carbon tax, then, in this scenario we can see that adding border adjustments makes its own citizens poorer.)

21 Apr 2016

Airbnb: Regulation Without the State

Economics, private law, Shameless Self-Promotion 10 Comments

My latest at FEE. An excerpt:

If potential renters had perfect information and deliberated over such decisions with the discipline of a samurai, there would be little need for external rules or regulation. Owners could offer rooms of varying attributes (including price), and each renter would pick the option that he or she liked best. There would be no surprises or regret.

In reality, it is difficult for renters to ascertain whether a room in another city has cockroaches, or the likelihood that one’s car will be stolen if parked outside that building. Furthermore, some people might not have the willpower or wisdom to pay $1 more for a room that has a smoke alarm, rather than a cheaper room that is a death trap in the (unlikely) event of a fire. In this world, we can imagine that without regulation, renters might end up in less desirable rooms than they’d been expecting and would occasionally realize they had made a foolish mistake by not paying enough attention to a certain risk.

 

20 Apr 2016

Murphy Twin Spin

Shameless Self-Promotion 3 Comments

==> My appearance on the “Reinvent Money” podcast.

==> At Lara-Murphy.com I show that Japan has been shedding Treasuries a lot more than China.

17 Apr 2016

A Stickler for the Rules Because We’re All Failures

Religious 15 Comments

Believe me, I understand the popular frustration with many Christians who are judgmental in a self-righteous manner.

Having said that, the Biblically correct position is to be (1) a stickler for God’s rules and (2) acknowledge that oneself can’t meet that impossibly high standard, either.

In other words, when a Christian warns the world, “Hey guys! These practices are all sinful! God is not happy about this!” the purpose should be to say, “That’s why we all need a Savior.” It’s not to say, “Man, I’m so glad I’m better than you heathens.”

In contrast, by watering down the rules to make them “reasonable”–things like, “Just don’t murder people or rob banks, and call your parents once a month”–then that’s actually attainable. So most people walk around thinking they’re basically OK, and it offends them to hear someone suggest God had to send His Son to die for their sins.

So to repeat: Correct Christian doctrine does indeed condemn the natural world as man has fashioned it, but that doesn’t mean Christians should feel smug. On the contrary, the sins they see surrounded them are just mirrors of how they were/(are?) without unmerited grace from God.

This also ties in to another of the huge problems people have with Christianity: “Wait, you mean some serial killer nutjob can just accept Jesus and then poof it’s all good? That’s crazy!”

16 Apr 2016

Why I Can’t Take Jonah Goldberg’s Anti-Trumpism Seriously

Trump 48 Comments

Scott Sumner linked with approval to this Jonah Goldberg article lamenting how ever more people are having their bodies snatched and now support Trump.

Anyway, I was OK with Jonah’s piece for a while, until he had to write this:

I concede that for conservatives living in swing states, this is a legitimately painful decision. Clinton and Sanders alike would be horror shows. But my answer is simple: I will never vote for Trump and I will never vote for Hillary or Bernie. Period.

It’s easy for me to say that because I live in Washington, D.C. Indeed, I’ve never lived anywhere where my vote hasn’t been canceled out at least seven to one. The important question for me is, how will I write and speak about this stuff professionally? Counting this “news”letter, I write about 14 columns a month. Throw in blog posts, magazine articles, spoken-word poetry, Fox News hits, and all of my mime work and suffice it to say, I can’t exactly hide from my opinions. I’ve never been in a situation where I couldn’t defend, broadly speaking, the Republican nominee or president. I’ve criticized them all, but in the fundamental arguments of the day, I’ve always sided with the more conservative party, which has been the GOP. There’s nothing Trump can do that would make me vote for Hillary Clinton. But if Trump is the nominee or the president, I will for the first time be working outside the familiar binaries of the two-party system. I guess I should ask the guys at Reason magazine or Cato how they cope.

One option is to just go full Mencken and just own the fact I am a man without a party.

Let’s review. George W. Bush:

1) Expanded prescription drug coverage for seniors, which cost an estimated $318 billion over its first ten years, and has been described as the biggest expansion of the welfare state (at that time, of course) since LBJ.

2) Nationalized banks.

3) Oversaw a worldwide network of CIA secret prisons.

4) Led the United States to invade another country either through incompetence or lying.

But Trump is somehow qualitatively worse than this, such that Jonah Goldberg is now thinking maybe he should consider more than two candidates in this election?

How can a smart guy like Sumner, who calls himself a libertarian, link to this in good conscience?

STANDARD DISCLAIMER: I DO NOT LIKE DONALD TRUMP.