Paul Craig Roberts Doesn’t Expect a Happy New Year
I like to keep abreast of those writers in the arena of political economy who would be dismissed as doomsayers, because I usually agree with their analysis of broad trends–I just think they too often underestimate how long it will take for other investors / world players to see the same patterns they do. (Yes my price inflation wager with David R. Henderson has made me more humble.) But anyway, check out Paul Craig Roberts’ recent piece (HT2 Frank C.):
2014 is shaping up as a year of reckoning for the United States.
Two pressures are building on the US dollar. One pressure comes from the Federal Reserve’s declining ability to rig the price of gold as Western gold supplies shrivel and market knowledge of the Fed’s illegal price rigging spreads. The evidence of massive amounts of naked shorts being dumped into the paper gold futures market at times of day when trading is thin is unequivocal. It has become obvious that the price of gold is being rigged in the futures market in order to protect the dollar’s value from QE.
The other pressure arises from the Obama regime’s foolish threats of sanctions on Russia. Other countries are no longer willing to tolerate Washington’s abuse of the world dollar standard. Washington uses the dollar-based international payments system to inflict damage on the economies of countries that resist Washington’s political hegemony.
Russia and China have had enough. As I have reported and as Peter Koenig reports here…Russia and China are disconnecting their international trade from the dollar. Henceforth, Russia will conduct its trade, including the sale of oil and natural gas to Europe, in rubles and in the currencies of its BRICS partners.
This means a big drop in the demand for US dollars and a corresponding drop in the dollar’s exchange value.
…
All evidence points to US economic failure in 2014…
What is also interesting is that PCR goes matter-of-factly into “9/11 Truth”:
This audacious recklessness comes on top of Washington’s overthrow of the Ukrainian government, the NSA spying scandal, Seymour Hersh’s investigative report that the Sarin gas attack in Syria was a false flag event arranged by NATO member Turkey in order to justify a US military attack on Syria, Washington’s forcing down Bolivian President Evo Morales’ presidential plane to be searched, Saddam Hussein’s “weapons of mass destruction,” the misuse of the Libyan no-fly resolution for military attack, and on and on. Essentially, Washington has so badly damaged other countries’ confidence in the judgment and integrity of the US government that the world has lost its belief in US leadership. Washington is reduced to threats and bribes and increasingly presents as a bully.
The self-inflicted hammer blows to Washington’s credibility have taken a toll. The most serious blow of all is the dawning realization everywhere that Washington’s crackpot conspiracy theory of 9/11 is false. Large numbers of independent experts as well as more than one hundred first responders have contradicted every aspect of Washington’s absurd conspiracy theory. No aware person believes that a few Saudi Arabians, who could not fly airplanes, operating without help from any intelligence agency, outwitted the entire National Security State, not only all 16 US intelligence agencies but also all intelligence agencies of NATO and Israel as well.
Nothing worked on 9/11. Airport security failed four times in one hour, more failures in one hour than have occurred during the other 116,232 hours of the 21st century combined. For the first time in history the US Air Force could not get interceptor fighters off the ground and into the sky. For the first time in history Air Traffic Control lost airliners for up to one hour and did not report it. For the first time in history low temperature, short-lived, fires on a few floors caused massive steel structures to weaken and collapse. For the first time in history 3 skyscrapers fell at essentially free fall acceleration without the benefit of controlled demolition removing resistance from below.
Two-thirds of Americans fell for this crackpot story…
But no one else believed it, least of all the Italians. Italians had been informed some years previously about government false flag events when their President revealed the truth about secret Operation Gladio. Operation Gladio was an operation run by the CIA and Italian intelligence during the second half of the 20th century to set off bombs that would kill European women and children in order to blame communists and, thereby, erode support for European communist parties.
Italians were among the first to make video presentations challenging Washington’s crackpot story of 9/11. The ultimate of this challenge is the 1 hour and 45 minute film, “Zero.” You can watch it here…
I have watched this topic with keen interest. Over the years, it has become more acceptable for people to challenge the official story. (I don’t know whether PCR was openly challenging it from the beginning; I don’t have him in mind when I make these remarks.) Can the old-timers tell us, is that what happened with the Kennedy assassination? Obviously there were skeptics right away, but at this point only 30% of Americans believe in the lone gunman theory. In 50 years, will only 30% of Americans (or Ameros?) believe in the 19-hijackers theory?
The “lone gunman” theory has never had more than 36% support (despite being supported by, you know, the evidence).
Paul Craig Roberts sounds like a crank.
I think it would be interesting to see who the people taking the poll believed was involved early on. I’m guessing a lot more people in the 60s and 70s believed Cuba or the Soviet Union were involved than the CIA or the US government (but look how low Cuba and the Soviet Union are now compared to the CIA and the federal government).
I sort of similar thing happened with 9/11. At one point in 2003, 70% believed that Saddam Hussein was personally involved in the attacks, for instance. That conspiracy has certainly died out, but that would make it seem as if 9/11 conspiracy believers dropped significantly since 2003, while that may only be the case depending on how you word the question (“was someone else involved” versus “was the US government involved”). I haven’t looked into polling data for this, so I have no idea if it did drop or not for US government involvement.
Josiah wrote:
The “lone gunman” theory has never had more than 36% support (despite being supported by, you know, the evidence).
OK duh, I whiffed that one; I just assumed it was higher in the immediate aftermath. I should’ve looked more carefully at my own link!
But more generally, I must strongly object to your Krugman locution of “, you know,” because–as when he uses it–not only is it obnoxious, but I think your confidence in your position is misplaced. There are at least 5 independent, serious problems with the Warren Report. Maybe it’s right, but this idea that anybody challenging it is simply a tinfoil-wearing nutjob is, you know, dumb.
There are at least 5 independent, serious problems with the Warren Report.
My claim wasn’t that the Warren Report was free of all error, just that Oswald acted alone.
As with many conspiracy theories, there are different alternative versions of what happened, which diverge to different degrees from the “official” version. Some are less nutty than others.
The evidence suggests Oswald did not act alone.
Just because 2 guys shot a bullet through 36″ of pine slats does not mean the same bullet can go through 2 body’s. Sure it is possible but the evidence does not really support anything.
I do know 2 things.
The autopsy was conducted by hacks.
The secret service man was told to get off the bumper otherwise he would have been in the way…
So the entire event is plagued.
I simply sum up the event as something I will never understand. I am okay with not knowing everything. I don’t have enough information, enough facts to make a logical conclusion.
“Just because 2 guys shot a bullet through 36″ of pine slats does not mean the same bullet can go through 2 body’s. Sure it is possible but the evidence does not really support anything.”
Gamble, have you watched the two videos linked to here?
http://consultingbyrpm.com/blog/2013/11/thoughts-on-jfk-assassination.html#comment-85091
Computer modeling traces the entire bullet trajectory (through both men) directly to the book depository window. That’s really convincing to me.
Yes but bullets don’t fly straight after they hit stuff.
Even a twig can wreck your shot.
I think we argued about this same stuff before, probably in that thread you linked.
I love the way the Zupruder film is blocked by the large sign right when Kennedy is shot.
But what are the odds that of all the possible locations, computer modeling just happens to trace the bullet trajectory to exactly the book depository window where Oswald was?
Agreed, the odds are zero, the model was faked.
As someone who has done a lot of computer models they never work out that accurately, and that’s in a situation where you have carefully taken measurements and a repeatable experiment. Trying to get an accurate reverse trajectory out of fuzzy film and spattered bits of remains, when the trajectory involves a ricochet is ridiculous.
Tel, it’s highly unlikely that Dale Myers’ model was faked. You can see a thorough discussion of the methodology at his website, jfkfiles.com.
He won an Emmy for his work, and before ABC agreed to put him on air they first had his computer model audited by an independent forensic animation company:
http://www.jfkfiles.com/jfk/html/zaxis.htm
The reconstruction is a pretty good answer though to the objections that it would have to be a “magic bullet”. This shows quite clearly no magic is needed. Since nearly all conspiracies theories are built one way or another on the alleged impossibility of a single bullet this refutes them pretty well. It proves a single bullet was *possible and plausible*.
Which is what they set out to prove, so saying, Oh my the “computer modeling just happens to trace the bullet trajectory to exactly the book depository window” is a load of crap.
With enough work, a model can give the output you want it to, but that’s not a empirical experiment, it’s elaborating on a theory. Frequently the model doesn’t even get published.
It traces back a cone and the window is in the cone.
That is really all that can said about tracing back the trajectory. But as I note, it’s all that is needed.
I agree a model is a calculation and an argument not a test.
Neither is dna analysis anything but calculation and argument, the evidence is still the blood. Calculation and argument are better than cui bono and baseless rumor mongering.
“I love the way the Zupruder film is blocked by the large sign right when Kennedy is shot.”
So your theory is conspirators timed it that way?
“This means a big drop in the demand for US dollars and a corresponding drop in the dollar’s exchange value.” – PCR
Which means a huge boost to US exports, followed by trading partners buying dollars to devalue their currency.
In 50 years will only 30% believe the 19 hijackers story? Depends on how popular home schooling becomes. If you have a large percentage of the population taught to think by people who are sure the Earth is 6000 years old, then there is a good chance you’ll have a large percentage believing 9/11 was a false flag.
“Which means a huge boost to US exports”
Of course the Keynesian counter-factual is that once we regulate AD, there are no problems. We’re back in the garden of Eden before Adam ate that apple.
“If you have a large percentage of the population taught to think by people who are sure the Earth is 6000 years old, then there is a good chance you’ll have a large percentage believing 9/11 was a false flag.”
There are still Americans that are taught, and subsequently believe, that profits are evil…….. when a corporation has them.
There are still Americans that are taught, and subsequently believe, that 536 people know how to run an economy better than us.
There are still Americans that are taught, and subsequently believe, that 1,076,245 American casualties and countless resources used on exploding/firing metal in Europe and the Pacific was what saved us from the depression. (it’s too bad that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan did not prevent or save us from the recent recession, d’oh!)
There are still Americans that are taught, and subsequently believe, that slaughtering and removing 6 million hogs from the market was an effective way of curing the depression…….. even when millions are unemployed and starving.
etc, etc, etc……… but damn those 9/11 conspiracy theorists. They are the problem.
I doubt anyone is taught casualties cured the great depression. But as to conspiracy theories, yes. Bad thinking and insufficient respect for evidence are two serious problems that afflict all societies at all times.
People are taught that war cured the depression, and casualties are an inevitable outcome of war. Same difference.
Not remotely.
How is it not the same difference?
Are you disagreeing that people are taught “the war ended the depression”?
Or are you disagreeing that casualties are an inescapable aspect of war?
Your logic here is astounding. It’s like you’re saying “Nobody is taught that driving a car causes global warming. People are only taught that CO2 emissions cause it. Duh!”
Increased government spending and casualties are two consequences of war. It is the spending that is alleged to have cured the depression, not the casualties.
That said, I think the inflammatory rhetoric is justified, even if logically incorrect. We should rightly be outraged that kids could be left with the impression that war might be a social good. Indeed, that was the impression I was left with from high school history.
“It is the spending that is alleged to have cured the depression, not the casualties.”
Also a lie.
The casualties just being the price we needed to pay for the “cure”, I suppose.
PS: Obtaining full employment by sending one half of the population to war, while the other half is forced to work in factories making bullets and guns is hardly a cure for depression. In fact, it depresses the hell out of me to think that a period where just about everything was rationed and people dying all over the place is not a period of profound depression.
It is well understood that what finally cured the depression was the mass reduction in government spending and taxes and a return to free markets after the war.
That is our point. It is not “logically incorrect” as we acknowledge it was the AD they worship. I would be just as bad as Joe if I claimed that Keynesians want death and missing limbs.
Peter wrote:PS: Obtaining full employment by sending one half of the population to war, while the other half is forced to work in factories making bullets and guns is hardly a cure for depression. In fact, it depresses the hell out of me to think that a period where just about everything was rationed and people dying all over the place is not a period of profound depression.”
Well said. Well said. I cringe when I hear people like Krug talk about how great eh war was and how it solved economic woes.
We should be breaking every window in the world right now. Lets just light it all on fire and kill everyone. Infinite prosperity for all…
“I doubt anyone is taught casualties cured the great depression. ”
What is a war? War is fighting, shooting, exploding objects, injuries and death. I merely described it instead of using the name WW2.
Hopefully no one takes this to mean that I think Keynesians “prefer” wars, alien invasions etc, to stimulate AD.
“Bad thinking and insufficient respect for evidence are two serious problems that afflict all societies at all times.”
People just need to think for themselves. When one comes to a conclusion, it needs to be made considering alternate points of view. When I debate MMT’ers that are this way, it is very good experience. There is no such benefit when “debating” Joe. Nor can I see how it benefits him to repeat the same exact straw men over and over.
I suppose I’d say that the problem isn’t bad thinking, but the refusal to think.
Sounds like you’re pulling a Daniel_Kuehn: “What? I thought everyone was taught the full pros and cons of the minimum wage when growing up. What do you mean everyone I’ve ever encountered disagrees?”
Sounds like you’re pulling a Silas Barta, missing the obvious point which was that I objected to the inflammatory and false claim that students are taught casualties cured the depression.
I think I was right on point: that, given a typical school’s economic history of the great depression, almost none of the students would object to the claim that “the casualties of WWII fixed the great depression”, if only because they are imprecise about what was “good” about WWII.
If a depression is defined in terms of high unemployment and falling GDP in dollar terms, WWII certainly addressed those aspects.
Dead, wounded, fighting, making tanks and bullets, at least no one was unemployed, and GDP was up, what’s not to love…
The claim is clearly “WWII cured the depression”. This is what is taught. Nothing about government spending or casualties. WWII is the ultimate broken window.
This is actually pretty funny considering the large amount of evidence on 9/11. there’s an enormous amount of evidence from professionals at the Architects and Engineers for 9/11 truth, Dr Stephen E Jones and many others regarding 9/11, and the one group of people who were SUPPOSED to test for explosives have not.
I’d like to know what evidence there is for an indictment or conviction of any of the people accused. Have any, i mean that would be used in a conviction, or even to justify an indictment (that was never made)
You await Atta’s trial?
Too funny.
oh it was one guy? I thought it was 19 guys with a support from an international organization of terrorist and terrorist supporters. My mistake I thought at least SOMEONE should be charged with a crime, like Osama bin laden, or maybe other members or supporters in the planning and operations stages of the missions who didn’t die on the plan. I didn’t realize it was just 1 guy hijacking3 planes simultaneously.
Look, on that side of things we have a very simple concept. Unemployment is high in multiple countries, we take the unemployed in one country and force them to fight to the death against the unemployed from other countries, thus eliminating unemployment.
I dunno if there’s an economic model for it, but the mechanism is dead simple. We could easy do it again next week, and it would work the same way.
My head explodes every time someone talking about exports benefiting from debased currency.
Tell you what: why don’t you make your “labor exports” to everyone around you extremely competitive by only requesting payment in your own worthless currency?
Wow, look how competitive your labor is now! People are actually *paying* for the right to make you pick cotton!
Very good points.
I always question what is so special about sales once they occur across national boundaries. At least MMT’ers understand the import/export debate a lot better. I.E. worthless currency for real goods, and somehow the US is LOSING the trade war?!?!?
Those chickens will come home to roost. Then your “winning” will be like Charlie Sheen “winning”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QS0q3mGPGg
Trade only works properly when both sides win.
When the US dollar falls relative to world currencies, in effect all Americans take a pay cut which makes it more attractive for the rest of the world to hire Americans to work for them, rather than do the work themselves.
If the demand for dollars falls, so does the demand for US bonds. The US government’s doors are kept open by the continued demand for its debt. Without buyers, it would have to cut spending (hah!) or resort to more obvious means of “printing money” than QE, which would further devalue the dollar.
Hey Joe,
If some 19 hack radicals can slip in America an create terror, what does this tell you about the billions and billions that have been spent on security?
Joe,
“Which means a huge boost to US exports, followed by trading partners buying dollars to devalue their currency.”
Export what? We already shipped our core manufacturing offshore. Assuming the timeline to retool in response to the macro currency change, it won’t be American buying all those newly manufactured goods as the priority will be external sales to earn strong currency and US workers will be unable to afford anyway.
Hoo boy. It’s like Crank Central here sometimes.
Low hanging fruit! ” Airport security failed four times in one hour, more failures in one hour than have occurred during the other 116,232 hours of the 21st century combined.”
False. There have been more than 4 instances where reporters have smuggled stuff onto planes or past airport security. Who knows how many things that are verboten got past security?
Suddenly the TSA is a paragon of effectiveness?
I agree his inclusion of the word “combined” makes little sense under my interpretation, Ken B., but I think what he meant was, “There has been no other SINGLE hour in the 21st century in which airport security failed 4 or more times.”
If those reporters to whom you refer all conducted their tests during the same 60-minute interval, then for sure PCR is wrong in his statement. But I don’t think that’s what happened.
Also FWIW, the TSA wasn’t in existence on 9/11.
Indeed. And do you think that bolsters or erodes Robert’s argument?
His wording is clear. More failures in 1 hour than failures in 116,232 hours combined. He did not talk about hours with four failures in them.
In order to “combine” hours, don’t they have to be seperate first?
But how does he know that? As Ken B. points out, most of the time when airport security “fails” (ie, someone gets a forbidden object through), we don’t really know it.
So, it’s entirely possible that at 3 pm on December 2, 1998, security in three different airports was lax and three people managed to smuggle box cutters onboard. But because these three people weren’t part of some elaborate conspiracy to hijack airplanes, we never found out about it.
To say that it’s unbelievable that airport security would fail so spectacularly essentially requires one to believe that these sorts of large-scale plots were commonly attempted, but prior to 9/11, always foiled by diligent airport security folks.
But it’s much more simple to just suggest that the reason such a thing had never happened before is because it had never been attempted before.
+1
I think what he meant was, “There has been no other SINGLE hour in the 21st century in which airport security failed 4 or more times.”
Let’s assume for a moment that this is what PCR meant (even though it really doesn’t read that way). For airport security to fail four times in an hour you need at least four attempts in a single hour. How often does that happen? Can PCR produce any examples in the other 116,232 hours of the 21st century where terrorists made four attempts to bypass security in a single hour? If not, then his inference seems to be little more than innumerate twaddle.
Yeah, and you don’t observe the times they were asleep on the job and would have failed, but no attempts happened that hour.
Ken’s right, you don’t actually know how many times airport security is failing. You only observe a small subset of those failures.
As an analogy, while the UFO community constantly bombards the government with conspiracy theories, it is the UFO community itself that is most “protective” of its information.
While they make for entertaining reading, exactly how many people to you have to keep quiet to contain the “truth” of 9/11? More to the point, what EXACTLY was the attack supposed to accomplish, and how was that to be measured?
Likewise, the Kennedy assassination: what EXACTLY was supposed to be accomplished? At least with the Kennedy assassination you can control the conspiracy because it was one man and getting a rifle is not that hard.
“More to the point, what EXACTLY was the attack supposed to accomplish, and how was that to be measured?”
You don’t have to believe 9/11 was an inside job to see that the government used 9/11 to their advantage. Patriot Act, Homeland Security, TSA, multiple wars, etc.
Cameras everywhere, even local. More bloated budgets, more centralizing, less civil rights and privacy.
What a mess. Whoever it was, they won. Freedom lost.
“they hate us for our freedom”
No need for that anymore.
Cripes I almost forgot about all the resultant economic meddling. Financial sector restructuring, stimulus, bailouts, tarp QEinfinity, etc. Ensuing social decay.
911 unleashed hell on earth.
I will never forget 911. I was driving to work, I ran some nasty train tracks. Immediately after I heard the radio talk about the attacks.
To this day I still wonder what really happened to me, to the world.
Things sure did change…
What convoluted chain of causality are you drawing here, actually?
That stuff was in reaction to a different “crisis” entirely.
Although I am interested to here if you have some theory that connects 9/11 to a recession several years later.
One that wouldn’t, I presume, equally allow you to connect those policies to the assassination of Arch Duke Ferdinand.
“exactly how many people to you have to keep quiet to contain the “truth” of 9/11?”
One, only killing her now would be counterproductive, but I bet they regret they didn’t eliminate her earlier (somebody killed her student though). It works through psychological carpet bombing and selling false prophets. Do not take over the opposition – that’s moronic. Be there first to draw them to your pre-placed organisation, catch them in a net, have your ideas and leading role in the first place. There was some neat citation from some psychopath but I frankly don’t care which one was it.
Answering Bob’s question: from what I gather it seems that you need to have well placed and rooted in the “tinfoil conspiracy populace” the false alternative version/s.They need to have those attentive and rebellious neatly caught into their nets and directed into the prepared bushes. Btw. the material from PCR is such a thing. Yes it will now go mainstream and agents will deny various facets of first impression that was put on public in aim of gaining credibility, I believe it’s called limited hangout.
I could drone for hours about what I mean here and what should you research to get to the same conclusion bot only if you can afford the time and are able to make a leap that it is. You’d also need to have the ability to intercept reptile brain reactions to this always contagious topic. Checking your premises is also welcome.
How do I know? I just see, it’s that simple. I see the evidence and I see the reactions of the agents (the poor or better sophists depending on the forum), or the fooled into thermite (or nukes or whatever) people. The reactions are always illogical. A funny thing (on the way to the moon – that’s another story 😀 I just gave your reptile brain an opportunity to dismiss anything I wrote, just so your heart and cortisol levels are fine – carry on) so a funny thing is that all the other important, articulate, authoritative personas within the subject attack the correct alternative version (true with regards to reality of what happened) in unison. They go to accuse her of braking the movement and other blasphemies.
A grand conspiracy can not be kept secret – true it can’t. You just pile an enormous amount of crap over the gold nugget so that people are affraid to even look in this direction – that works quite well, that’s good enough.
So, khodge, your premise is wrong – it’s pretty wide open what happened. We don’t know exactly how, exactly who, nor exactly why, but sure as hell we know EXACTLY what happened – I will always remember this lesson of hers 😀
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