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My Inflation Bet: The Gift That Keeps on Taking
Don’t worry kids, I didn’t make another bet. Rather, this was the original wager that David R. Henderson then tweaked (including making the time horizon shorter). I am mailing the check to Bryan this month. If you want to hear my thoughts on what went wrong, here is my indignant reaction to Krugman and DeLong, […]
Read moreMy Response to David R. Henderson’s Proposed Bet on the Stock Market
Over at EconLog, in response to my recent post here, David writes (with my minor formatting changes): I propose to Bob the following bet: ==> “I bet that by May 27, 2020, the S&P 500, adjusted for inflation measured by the CPI, will not be more than 10% lower than it was on May 27, […]
Read moreTwo Views (?) On Using Bets to Test Economic Theories
Back in December, when Brad DeLong said I needed to study at the feet of Krugman because I lost an inflation bet to David R. Henderson, and then Bryan Caplan objected to the tone of the statements, Daniel Kuehn wrote: I thought the whole point of betting on predictions was to weed out BS and […]
Read moreMurphy Inflation Smackdown
[UPDATE below.] Brad DeLong unleashes hell on me at his blog for my (price) inflation bet with David R. Henderson. Especially in light of my Les Mis post yesterday, I had thought about either ignoring this or just linking to it in a Potpourri with no comment. However, at the risk of seeming petty, I […]
Read moreUpdate on My Inflation Bets
I know that a while ago I made two inflation bets, one with Bryan Caplan and a much more serious one with David Henderson. Here are the terms with Caplan: At any point between now and January 2016, if there is a year/year increase in seasonally adjusted CPI that is at least 10%, then [Caplan […]
Read moreCan the Fed Drive Up Food Prices? Reply to Henderson
I have been putting off my reply to David R. Henderson for when I can “do it justice.” Well that’s not going to happen anytime soon, so let me fire off some quick thoughts… Let’s refresh our memories as to David’s objections: On Judge Napolitano’s “Freedom Watch” on March 25, Austrian economist Bob Murphy claimed […]
Read more"Did the Fed Cause the Housing Bubble?" Henderson & Hummel vs. Murphy: This Time, It’s Personal
OK I have been putting this off for a few days, hoping to get time to “do it right.” Well, that’s not going to happen; I’m sitting in a hotel room at 6:00 local time, I got out of bed about 16 hours ago, I still have two official work projects to do, plus I […]
Read moreRevisiting Piketty’s Summary of the U.S. Minimum Wage
The good news is that one person responded to my labor of love (i.e. my long comment) on Scott Alexander’s post on Piketty. The bad news is that the guy’s response contained stuff like this: If that’s the worst, most partisan error in Piketty, then I’m not too concerned. If anything I’m more concerned about […]
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