At EconLib. Here’s something that might surprise you, but you need the background info that when Krugman told the NYT readers that there is “just no evidence” that minimum wage hikes reduce employment, he linked to a 2010 paper by Dube et al. So with that:
If we are discussing proposals to increase the minimum wage to $10.10, then Dube et al. are telling us that they are 95-percent confident that teenage employment will fall by no more than about 6 percent.11 If, instead, we consider the more aggressive proposals to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour, then Dube et al.’s results assure us with 95-percent confidence that the hit to teenage employment will be no worse than about 16 percent. (!) These outcomes are hardly negligible, and they are fencing in a spectrum of bad outcomes, not just an isolated (and improbable) disaster. In other words, when we translate the quotation from above into plain English, we are not saying that there is just a small probability of an awful result, but that otherwise things are fine. Rather, Dube et al. are merely placing a ceiling on how bad the employment drop will likely be.
If that doesn’t surprise you, then you probably won’t flinch when you see me favorably mention Daniel Kuehn either.