Thursday, October 16, 2008

 

Official Yr/Yr CPI Inflation: 4.9%

Well, the headlines are all telling us that there was no rise in prices from August to September. Maybe, but here I explain why I'm skeptical. What this CNBC story doesn't say is that from September 07 to September 08, even the government's official CPI (for all urban consumers) rose 4.9%.* So keep that in mind if you get the sense from the papers that we have had stable prices.


* And John Williams over at "ShadowStats" would of course say that even this official figure of 4.9% is a joke. Before I was a "grown up" (in quotation marks because it is still debatable), I wouldn't have been in a position to say. But c'mon, do you think the prices you pay--not just for gas and electricity, but also for milk, bread, and meat--have only risen about 5 percent over the last twelve months? As Dr. Evil would say, "How bout, no."



Comments:
I don't know if I've ever asked you this question: why can't arbitrageurs buy securities that correlate well with consumer prices and thus keep after-tax interest rates at least equal to inflation?

And have you considered making an exception in your pacifism for the marginal buyers of bonds that are keeping interest rates ridiculously low? ;-)
 
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